الخصم والوزن الاجتماعي لأضرار ظاهرة الاحتباس الحراري

2014 ???????? ????? ????? ???????? ???????

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?? ??? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ?? ??? ????? ?????? – ?????? ???? ?????? ???????? ???? ?????? ??????? ????? ???????? ???????.

??? ????? ????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ???????? ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ?????????.

????? ?????? ??????? ???? [?????] ????? ??????? ??? ????? ?????? ???????: ?????? ??? ?? ??????? ????? ??? ??? ????? ??? ????? ????? ?? ????? ??????? ??? ??????? ???? ????? ???? ?? ????? ???????? ????????

??????? ???? ????? ??? ????? ????????? ?? ????? ?????? ????: ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ??? ????????? ??????? ???????? ?????? ???? ??????? ?? ??? ????? ???? ???? ??? ????? ??? ????? ????? ????? ?????? ??????? ????? ???????? ???????? ???? ?? ?????????

 

????? ???? ????? ??? ???: ??? ????? ??? ????????? (Preliminaries)? ??????? ?????? ??????? (Descriptive Approach) ?????????? (Prescriptive Approach) ??? ????? ?????.

??? ??? ????? ?? ???? ?????? ????? (Ramsey Equation) ???? ???? ???? ???????? ?????????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???????. ??? ????? ?????? ???? ???? ???? ?????? “?????????” ????? “????????” ???????? ????????.

???? ????? (Encouragment) ?? ?? ?????. ??????? ?? ??? ???? ??? (Tough Slogging)? ??? ?? ???? ??? ????? ?? ?? ???? ????????.

?? ??? ????? ????? ?????? [?????] ?? ??????? ???? ?????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ??? ????? ????? ?????????? ??????? ??????? ????? ??????? ?????????? ????????? ???? ??? ???? ??? ??? ??????? ?? ??????? ??????? (Underspecified) ?????? ??? ????? ????  ?????? ?????? ??????.

 

??????? ????? ?? ??????? ????????? (Paradoxical Results): ????? ??? ??? ??? ???????? ?? ????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ??? ?????? ??? ???? ??? ????? ?????? ???? ?? ?????? ???? ???? ???.

???? ????? “???? ??????? ????????? ?? ????????” (Egalitarian Instincts Conflict) ?? ???????? ???? ????? ??????.

????? ???: ?????? ????? ?????? ????? ??? ???? ??? ??? ????? ???? ???? ????? ?????? ???? ?????? ???? ?? ?????? ??????? ????????? ?????? ??????? ???? ??????? ????????. ???? ???? ?????? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ????? ????? ????????

 

???? ???? ???. ??? ??? ???? ?????? ???? ???????? ??? ??????? (Inter-Generation)? ???? ????? ????? ???????? ????????? ??? “????? ????? ??????” (Intra-Generation).  

??? ?? ?????? ??? ????? ????????? ?????? ????? ???????? ??????? ???????? ???? ???? ??? ??????? ????? ??? ???????.

??? ???????  ???? ???? ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ????? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????? ??????????? ?? ????? ???????? ??? ???????.

 

???? ????? ???? ??? ???? ??? ???????  ???????  ?? ??? ???????? ???? ????? ??????? ???? ????????. ??????? ?????? ??????  ???? ????? ????? ????.

????? ????? ?? ??????? ??????? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ??? ????? ???????? ?????? ?? ????? ???? ??????. ?????? ????? ?? ????? ?? ?????? ????? ?????? ???? ???? ?????? ???? ??? ??? ????? ????????. ????? ?????? [?? ??????] ???? ?????? ?????.

 

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??? ???? ????? ????? ???????? ??????? ???? ?????? ????? ?? ???? ??????? ???? ????? ??????–??????? ??? ??????? ????? ?? “?????” (Aggregate) [???????] ??? ?????.

?????? ???????? [??? ?????] ?? ?????? ??? ??? ????? ????? ???????? ???? ???? ?????? ????? ?? ????? ???????. ??? ?? ???? ?? ???? ?? ???? ?? ?? ???????? (????????)? ??? ??? ?? ???? ??????? ???? ??????? ????? ?????? (???).

?????? ?? ?????? ??????? ???????? ???????? ???? ????? ?? ???????? ?? ??? ?? ?????? ??????? ???? ????? ????? ????????. ????????? ?????? ??? ???????? ?????? ???? ??????  ??? ???? ???? ??? ?? ????? ?????? ??? ???? ????? ???????.

????? ??? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ????? ???? ?????? ???? ????? ??? ????? ?????? ???????? ????? ?????⁽¹⁾.

 

??? ?????? ????? ?? ???? ???? ????? ????? ???? ?? ????? ?????? ?? ???? ?????.

??? ??? ?????? ???????????? ??? ???? ???? ??? ????? ??????? ????? ??? ??? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ???????? ???? ????? ?? ???????? ???? ?? ?????? ??????? ???? ?????? ?? ???? ????? ????????.

???? ?????? ??? ?? ??? ?????? ???? ?? ?????? ????? ?? ???? ???? ??? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ??????? ??? ?????. ??? ?? ?? ???? ?? ??? ???????? ??? ??? ?????? ?????? ????.

 

?? ???? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ?? ????????? ????? ???????? ??????? ???????? ????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ?????.

???? ???? ??????? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ??????? ???? ??? ??? 300 ??? – ???? ????? ??? ?????? [?????? ???????] ?? ?????? ????? ??????? ?? ?? ??????? ??????? ?????- ???? ????? ??????? ????? 15,439 ??????? ????????.

????? ???? ???? ??? ????? ????? 1.4%? ????? ??? ?? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? ???? ??? ???? ????? 4%⁽²⁾.

 

?????? ?????? [1.4%] ?? ???? ??? ????? ???????? ?? ???????? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ?????(Stern Report).

??? ??????? [4%] ????? ????? ??????? 100 ??????? ???????? ?? ??? “????? ???????” (William Nordhaus) ??????? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ????? ??????? ?? ?????? ???? 2008 ?????? ?????? ??????.

 

??????? ????? ?? ???? ??? ????? ?? ??? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? ????????? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ??????? ??? ?????.

??????????? ??? ?????? ???????? ??? ??? ????? ???? ?? ????? ???????? ?? ?? ??? ?????? ?? ?????????? ???????? ??????–?????? ?? ????? ??????.

??? ?????? ????? ?? ??? ?????????? ???? ?????? ????????? ???? ??????? ??? ???? ?? ???? ????? ????? ?????. ??? ??? ???? ???? ?????????? ???? ?????? ?? ???????? ?? ??? ???? ????? ????????? ???? ??? ?????????? ????? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ???? ????.

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